THE SUN -- Friend Or Foe? What's Coming - The Effects on Earth - Current Happenings

[maryals]

This has been going on for more than a week...CME after CME...Rays and Waves and all kinds of Sun Snot for more than a week! Anyone remember the last time it was this active? I mean THIS active?

Mary and Baby

[Judee]

This has been going on for more than a week...CME after CME...Rays and Waves and all kinds of Sun Snot for more than a week! Anyone remember the last time it was this active? I mean THIS active?

Mary and Baby

I believe it's breaking records isn't it?

[Judee]

NASA Science News for March 22, 2012
A flurry of solar activity in early March dumped enough heat in Earth's upper atmosphere to power every residence in New York City for two years. The heat has since dissipated, but there's more to come as the solar cycle intensifies.

FULL STORY: http://science.nasa.gov/science-news...2/22mar_saber/

[pyrite]

Air quality alert message
texas commission on environmental quality
relayed by national weather service houston/galveston tx152 pm cdt sat mar 24 2012...
ozone watch issued for saturday and sunday..
.the texas commission on environmental quality...has issued an
ozone watch for the houston...galveston...and brazoria areas for
saturday and sunday...march 24th and 25th.

Atmospheric conditionsare expected to be favorable for producing high levels of ozone
pollution in the houston...galveston...and brazoria areas.

elevated concentrations of ozone can act as a lung irritant.individuals with chronic lung disease...such as asthma and
emphysema...and the elderly and small children...are particularly
sensitive to ozone and should attempt to avoid exposure.

To avoidexposure...minimize exertion outdoors during the mid-day to early
evening hours or stay indoors in an air conditioned area during thistime.

ozone reaching excessive levels at any site in the area may move to
or from other sites within the area...depending on wind direction andother factors. Excessive levels may linger until sunset.
Ozone
warnings will be issued if air pollution levels are detected at
unhealthy levels.

[maryals]

Oh my....be careful

Mary and Baby

[Judee]

Solar Climate Change Could Cause Rougher Space Weather
by Staff Writers
Reading UK (SPX) Mar 30, 2012

sun-magnetic-field-shaping-hot-coronal-plasma-lg.jpg

Image of a coronal mass ejection (CME) on June 7, 2011, recorded in ultraviolet light by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite. The shock front that forms ahead of these huge expulsions of material from the solar atmosphere (the event shown moved at 1,400 km/s) can generate large fluxes of highly energetic particles at Earth which can be a considerable hazard to space-based electronic systems and with repeated exposure, a health risk for crew on board high-altitude aircraft.

Recent research shows that the space age has coincided with a period of unusually high solar activity, called a grand maximum. Isotopes in ice sheets and tree rings tell us that this grand solar maximum is one of 24 during the last 9,300 years and suggest the high levels of solar magnetic field seen over the space age will reduce in future.

This decline will cause a reduction in sunspot numbers and explosive solar events, but those events that do take place could be more damaging.

Graduate student Luke Barnard of the University of Reading will present new results on 'solar climate change' in his paper at the National Astronomy Meeting in Manchester.

The level of radiation in the space environment is of great interest to scientists and engineers as it poses various threats to man-made systems including damage to electronics on satellites. It can also be a health hazard to astronauts and to a lesser extent the crew of high-altitude aircraft.

The main sources of radiation are galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), which are a continuous flow of highly energetic particles from outside our solar system and solar energetic particles (SEPs), which are accelerated to high energies in short bursts by explosive events on the Sun.

The amount of radiation in the near-Earth environment from these two sources is partly controlled in a complicated way by the strength of the Sun's magnetic field.

There are theoretical predictions supported by observational evidence that a decline in the average strength of the Sun's magnetic field would lead to an increase in the amount of GCRs reaching near-Earth space.

Furthermore there are predictions that, although a decline in solar activity would mean less frequent bursts of SEPs, the bursts that do occur would be larger and more harmful.

Currently spacecraft and aircraft are only designed and operated to offer suitable protection from the levels of radiation that have been observed over the course of the space age.

A decline in solar activity would result in increased amounts of radiation in near-Earth space and therefore increased risk of harm to spacecraft and aircraft and the astronauts and aircraft crews that operate them.

By comparing this grand maximum with 24 previous examples, Mr. Barnard predicts that there is an 8% chance that solar activity will fall to the very low levels seen in the so-called 'Maunder minimum', a period during the seventeenth century when very few sunspots were seen.

In this instance, the flux of GCRs would probably increase by a factor of 2.5 from present day values and the probability of observing a large SEP event will fall from the presently seen 5 down to 2 events per century.

However, the more probable scenario is that solar activity will decline to approximately half its current value in the next 40 years, in which case the flux of GCRs will increase by a factor of 1.5 and the probability of large SEP events to increase from the current value to 8 events per century.

As a result the near-Earth space radiation environment will probably become more hazardous in the next 40 years.

In presenting his results, Mr. Barnard comments: "Radiation in space can be a serious issue for both people and the delicate electronic systems that society depends on. Our research shows that this problem is likely to get worse over the coming decades - and that engineers will need to work even harder to mitigate its impact."

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/So...ather_999.html

[Judee]

Earth Unprepared for Super Solar Storm
by Mike Wall, SPACE.com Senior Writer
Date: 18 April 2012


Humanity needs to be much better prepared for massive solar storms, which can wreak havoc on our technology-dependent society, a prominent researcher warns.

Powerful blasts from the sun have triggered intense geomagnetic storms on Earth before, and they'll do so again. But at the moment our ability to predict these events and guard against their worst consequences — which can include interruptions of power grids and satellite navigation systems — is lacking, says Mike Hapgood of the British research and technology agency RAL Space.

"We need a much better understanding of the likelihood of space weather disruptions and their impacts, and we need to develop that knowledge quickly," Hapgood, head of RAL Space's space environment group, writes in a commentary in the April 19 issue of the journal Nature.
Potentially devastating storms

The solar storms we need to worry about, Hapgood says, are coronal mass ejections, huge clouds of charged solar plasma that can rocket into space at speeds of 3 million mph (5 million kilometers per hour) or more.

CMEs that hit Earth inject large amounts of energy into the planet's magnetic field, spawning potentially devastating geomagnetic storms that can disrupt GPS signals, radio communications and power grids for days. [The Worst Solar Storms in History]

The world witnessed such effects not too long ago. In March 1989, a CME caused a power blackout in Quebec, leaving 5 million Canadians in the dark in cold weather for hours. The event caused about $2 billion in damages and lost business, Hapgood writes.

But CMEs are capable of much greater mischief. A huge ejection — now known as the Carrington event, after a British astronomer— slammed into Earth in 1859, setting off fires in telegraph offices. The world was not technologically advanced enough yet to suffer worse consequences, Hapgood noted.

"If we had a repeat of the Carrington event, I would expect several days of economic and social mayhem as many critical technological systems failed – e.g., localized power grid failures in many countries, widespread loss of GPS signals for navigation and timing, disruption of communications systems, shutdown of long-haul aviation," Hapgood told SPACE.com via email.

And the short-term problems caused by such a storm could pale in comparison with its long-term impact, he added.

"What scares me is the possibility that this recovery could take a long time in many parts of the world," Hapgood said. "Over the past few decades, we have become much more dependent on technology to sustain our everyday lives: e.g., electricity to pump clean water to our homes and remove sewage, just-in-time supply chains to feed us, ATMs and retail card readers to provide money for everyday shopping. Do we know how to recover quickly from the simultaneous disruption of a huge range of systems?"

Improving predictions

Despite a growing sense of concern among scientists — and decision-makers in politics and industry — our technology-dependent society remains vulnerable to a big CME-spawned geomagnetic storm, Hapgood says.

For starters, our forecasting ability, while improving, is still lacking. The United States' Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) can currently provide warnings of strong geomagnetic storms 10 to 60 minutes in advance with about 50 percent accuracy, Hapgood writes. That's a pretty small window for power companies to take protective measures.

SWPC scientists and other space-weather forecasters generally rely on observtions of approaching CMEs made by a handful of spacecraft. These include NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) and Solar Terrestrial Rela*tions Observatory (STEREO) probes, as well as the NASA/European Space Agency Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).

ACE launched in 1997, SOHO in 1995 and the twin STEREO craft in 2006. It's time for an upgrade, Hapgood told SPACE.com.

"We really need to replace those spacecraft and their instruments that monitor CMEs and, if possible, upgrade the instruments so they are optimized for space weather monitoring – essentially to pull out the most critical data and get it back to Earth as soon as possible," he said.
Preparing for the worst

The 1989 event spurred some power companies to require that all new transformers be able to withstand storms of similar magnitude.

But Hapgood thinks power, aviation and other vulnerable industries — including finance, which depends on precise GPS time stamps for automatic trading — should take a longer view and guard against the huge storm that comes along just once every 1,000 years or so.

That's tough to do, since researchers don't know what a thousand-year storm might look like; data on such dramatic events are pretty hard to come by. But Hapgood says scientists could get a better idea by analyzing more data, including observations from a century or more ago.

Much of this historical information exists on paper only. Digitizing it would bring these records to the attention of many more researchers, Hapgood says, and he suggests enlisting citizen scientists to do the job on the Internet, much as the Galaxy Zoo project asks volunteers to classify galaxies online by the galaxies' shapes.

Researchers also need to develop better physics-based models to improve their understanding of extreme space weather, Hapgood says. And he suggests that studying storms on other, sunlike stars could be helpful, too.

In general, Hapgood is calling for powerful geomagnetic storms to be regarded as natural hazards similar to big earthquakes and volcanic eruptions: infrequent, potentially devastating events.

"These events often transcend the experience of any individual because they happen so rarely. Thus there is an all-too-human tendency to ignore them — that they lie outside the awareness of the decision-maker and probably will not occur during his term of office," Hapgood said. "But these events will happen sometime. We need to understand them and decide how far we should (i.e., can afford to) protect against them — and definitely not leave them until it's too late."

http://www.space.com/15324-solar-sto...e-attack.html?

[Judee]

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 284
Issue Time: 2012 Apr 24 0047 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Apr 24 0046 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

[Judee]

Space Weather News for May 9, 2012
http://spaceweather.com

RADIO-ACTIVE SUNSPOT: Huge sunspot AR1476 is crackling with M-class solar flares and appears to be on the verge of producing something even stronger. The sunspot's 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field harbors energy for X-class flares, the most powerful kind. Radio operators are recording strong bursts of shortwave static from the sunspot as it turns toward Earth. Visit http://spaceweather.com for sample recordings and forecasts.

[maryals]

:Issued: 2012 May 10 1242 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
# (RWC Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20510
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 10 May 2012, 1223UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 10 May 2012 until 12 May 2012)
SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 May 2012 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 May 2012 10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 May 2012 10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 007
COMMENT: NOAA AR 11476 is growing in size and number of spots. Since
yesterday noon, several major M-flares have been released. There is no
indication that his will stop soon, at the contrary, chances for X-class
flaring are becoming substantial. As the active region is approaching
central meridian, the chances for associated particle storms are also
increasing. The solar wind speed is still elevated but geomagnetic
activity has reduced to quiet levels.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 066, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 9 May 2012
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 113
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 127
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 040
AK WINGST : 031
ESTIMATED AP : 028
ESTIMATED ISN : 061, BASED ON 24 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
08 1302 1308 1312 N13E44 M1.4 1F 69 1476
09 1221 1232 1236 N13E31 M4.7 1N 110 1476
09 1402 1408 1414 N06E22 M1.8 1B 68 III/2 1476
09 2101 2105 2109 M4.1 240 1476
10 0411 0418 0423 N13E22 M5.7 2B 690 III/2 1476
END
BT
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #
# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #
# #
# For more information, see http://sidc.be/products/meu #
# Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments #
# and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead.
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

Mary and Baby

[maryals]

:Issued: 2012 May 17 0541 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
NOAA AR 1476 released an M5.1 flare peaking at 01:47 UT, as it rotated
over the west limb. The flare produced an ongoing proton event with 100
MeV protons exceeding the threshold of 1 pfu (and 10 MeV protons already
above 100 pfu). An associated CME was observed, travelling towards the
west, it's not expected to arrive to Earth (although we may see the
shock). Also type II radio bursts were detected.

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #
# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #
# #
# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #
# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #
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# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #

The Sun is a cracklin' before it's big Eclipse!

[maryals]

Just because it's cool!

Mary and Baby

[Judee]

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 776
Issue Time: 2012 Jun 03 1457 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2012 Jun 03 1458 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jun 03 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.