THE SUN -- Friend Or Foe? What's Coming - The Effects on Earth - Current Happenings

[maryals]

:Issued: 2013 May 14 1301 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
# (RWC Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 30514
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 May 2013, 1305UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 14 May 2013 until 16 May 2013)
SOLAR FLARES : Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 May 2013 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 May 2013 10CM FLUX: 153 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 May 2013 10CM FLUX: 156 / AP: 007
COMMENT:NOAA AR 1748 rotated into view, it is still not possible to infer its
magnetic configuration but it is a big region with mixed magnetic
polarities. It produced two X-class flares in past 24h and can produce
more. The first one was an X2.8 with peak at 16:05 UT on May 13, the second
one an X3.2 at 01:11 UT today. Both were related to radio bursts and fast
limb CMEs. The first CME has a speed of 1500 km/s in the LASCO C3 field of
view (decelerated with respect to the 1800 km/s seen in C2), while the
second one was travelling at 1900 km/s in LASCO C3 (accelerated from the
1600 km/s measured in C2). Due to the source region location right at the
limb, we expect at most a shock arriving to the Earth early on May 15
(09:00 UT for the first one and 13:00 UT for the second one). There is also
a CME from May 12 expected to arrive around the same time as the first CME
from yesterday. The second X flare and corresponding CME produced also a
rise on the proton flux, which is still below the threshold and seems
stable for the moment. NOAA AR 1745 has also potential for M flares. High
solar activity is expected for the next 48h. Geomagnetic conditions are
currently quiet. The possible arrival of a shock from the two halo CMEs and
a mild fast speed stream from a coronal hole may increase conditions to
active and possible minor storm levels in the next 48h.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 106, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 13 May 2013
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 147
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 150
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 007
AK WINGST : 006
ESTIMATED AP : 005
ESTIMATED ISN : 097, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END

BT

# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #
# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #
# #
# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be

Mary and Baby

[Judee]

It's interesting that NASA's Space Weather website is unavailable today so far... The sun is getting cranky these days. Are you able to get on it Mary?

[maryals]

It's interesting that NASA's Space Weather website is unavailable today so far... The sun is getting cranky these days. Are you able to get on it Mary?

Is this what you're talking about? http://solarmonitor.org

I am also feeling especially cranky and short tempered today and there's nothing else going on, in fact, lots o' good stuff has been going on.

Mary and Baby

[Judee]

Is this what you're talking about? http://solarmonitor.org

I am also feeling especially cranky and short tempered today and there's nothing else going on, in fact, lots o' good stuff has been going on.

Mary and Baby

No, that's not the site I was referring to Mary, it was spaceweather.com and it appears to be back up. I had two other friends check to see if they could get on earlier, and they could not either. The sun is getting more and more cranky. Here's another X-flare...

:Issued: 2013 May 15 0231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/flaremail
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Large flare alerts from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium), detected in GOES #
# X-ray data #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A class X1.2 solar X-ray flare occurred on 2013/05/15 with peak time 01:48 UT

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #
# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #
# #
# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be.

[blackeyes]

http://www.disclose.tv/action/viewvi...__May_15_2013/

We are getting spanked soon.

[Judee]

http://www.disclose.tv/action/viewvi...__May_15_2013/

We are getting spanked soon.

Spanked? Love it BE! Good way to put it. I still can't believe that very few people have woken up and noticed the change in the sun's color and intensity. Oh well. huh.gif

[blackeyes]

Sorry if this was already posted. I found it quite fascinating. I have been following his youtube channel for about a year now. I've accepted his understanding of the readings in front of me. Now he explains how to understand for yourself. There are several charts to learn. Once you understand them, the Sun is at your disposal. He even explains how to make your own videos.

http://www.youtube.com/user/Suspicious0bservers

[Judee]

:Issued: 2013 May 22 1728 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A M5 flare was detected peaking around 13:32 UT on May 22d. It is associated with a rise for all proton levels up to 50 MeV above the 10.0 pfu treshold. A CME was detected by LASCO C3 around 15:00 UT, but there is still a data gap. From the available information the CME has an angular width of around 120 degrees and a speed around 1000 km/s. Based on this data the CME will reach Earth on May 25th around 17:00 UT. Active (K >= 4) to storm (K >= 5) geomagnetic conditions are expected.
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #
# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #
# #
# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be.

[Judee]

Space Weather News for May 22, 2013
http://spaceweather.com

SIGNIFICANT EXPLOSION: A solar radiation storm is in progress on May 22nd following an M5-class solar flare on the sun's western limb. The explosion not only accelerated a hailstorm of protons toward our planet, but also produced a magnificent CME, which might deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field in the days ahead. Check http://spaceweather.com for more information and updates.

[maryals]

Space Weather News for May 22, 2013
http://spaceweather.com

SIGNIFICANT EXPLOSION: A solar radiation storm is in progress on May 22nd following an M5-class solar flare on the sun's western limb. The explosion not only accelerated a hailstorm of protons toward our planet, but also produced a magnificent CME, which might deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field in the days ahead. Check http://spaceweather.com for more information and updates.

Even a glancing blow is bad news. But I don't think it had any effect up here over Alaska.

Mary and Baby

[Judee]

This is a good sized one...


Space Weather Message Code: WARK06 Serial Number: 227 Issue Time: 2013 Jun 07 0543 UTC EXTENDED WARNING:

Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected Extension to Serial Number: 225 Valid From: 2013 Jun 07 0350 UTC Now Valid Until: 2013 Jun 07 0900 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

[Judee]

As far south as Kansas?? Wow!


Space Weather News for June 7, 2013
http://spaceweather.com

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS: Last night, Earth passed through a region of south-pointing magnetism in the solar wind. This triggered a G2-class (Kp=6) geomagnetic storm. At its peak, the storm spawned Northern Lights in the USA as far south as Kansas. More auroras are in the offing as a CME is set to deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on June 8-9. Check http://spaceweather.com for photos and updates.

[maryals]

We've been having clear skies but way too much sunlight even during the wee hours to see the Northern Lights. Now it WILL be exciting if the Aurorae get bright enough to be seen even during the Twilight hours up here!

Mary and Baby